Supply and demand: a simple economic term, but one that will be central to the grape season this year.  Climate impacts on global markets have been well reported on, but as it relates to grapes it is having a big impact. In case you missed it read our update on the current state of the global grape market here.

Like a giant game of dominos, every weather event releases another tile and its impact on the upcoming Vanguard Direct season is being felt daily. Demand absurdly exceeds supply.  

All eyes are on the early start of the season in Ica, Peru.  

Our forecast is still in line. Harvest is coming early due to favourable weather, about 10 days earlier than forecasted. This is good news in some ways, but looking ahead, this will result in a gap for supply in late November/early December. Harvest in Ica will commence the first week of November. Unlike so many this year, weather has been favourable in Ica, and forecasts are promising from today until the end of harvest.   

Volumes out of Ica are in line with 2022/23 totals, however, average pricing is up quite significantly due to the limited supply felt from the rest of the global market. The weather woes have left very little product in the spot market, so customers are eagerly targeting Ica to be their supply solution.  

So where does the product go? 

As global customers turn their attention towards Ica, producers are faced with a complex challenge: how to allocate their product to various markets without leaving any one region underserved. Striking this delicate balance requires careful planning and adaptability in response to the ever-changing market conditions. 

The shift in pricing and supply levels inevitably raises questions about how consumers will respond. In an economic climate where price sensitivity is paramount, will consumers be willing to pay a premium for grapes, especially if previous experiences were less than satisfactory? Understanding consumer behavior in this context will be essential for both producers and retailers.  

The Ica, Peru grape season is poised to be a pivotal moment in the global grape market. With an early harvest and heightened demand, producers and stakeholders must navigate a landscape of shifting supply and demand dynamics. The decisions made in the coming weeks will shape the trajectory of the grape market for the season ahead.  

Stay tuned for further updates from the field of Ica, Peru as the season gets underway and the team at Vanguard Direct navigates the evolving market conditions.